REVIEWSrnGoing Down Slowrnby John TantonrnPopulation Politics: The ChoicesrnThat Shape Our Futurernby Virginia AbernethyrnNew York: Plenum PublishingrnCorporation; 300 pp., $26.50rnUntil recently, thinking and writingrnin dubious terms about immigrationrnhas been, well, something thatrnpolite and right-thinking folks justrndidn’t do. But now that taboo seemsrnto be lifting, as evidenced by the recentrnpublication of such books as GeorgernKennan’s Around the Cragged Hill andrnPaul Kennedy’s Preparing for the Twenty-rnFirst Century: both of these volumesrnfeature forthright, unsentimental, andrncritical analyses of international migrationrnphenomena. Among those callingrnfor a reappraisal of our immigrationrnpolicies is Virginia Abernethy, professorrnof psychiatry (anthropology) at VandcrbiltrnMedical School and editor of Populationrnand Environment. In her factfilledrnnew book. Population Politics, sherncovers a wide range of topics relating tornwhy so many of our planet’s people wishrnto emigrate to this country.rnAbernethy’s interest in Americanrnimmigration policy comes out of anrnoverarching concern about growth inrngeneral and population growth in particular.rnShe clearly is not of the JulianrnSimon-Cornucopian school, and she believesrnthat we are approaching limits inrnmany quarters. With the global populationrnrising at a rate of 10,000 peoplernan hour, 250,000 a day, 95 million arnyear, where, she wants to know, will thernnecessary natural resources be foundrnand the resulting wastes go?rnIn the book’s opening section. ProfessorrnAbernethy deals with matters pertainingrnto demographics and the exhaustionrnof planetary riches. In thernsecond section she focuses on one ofrnher main targets, the hallowed theoryrnof the demographic transition. In summary,rnthis counterintuitive notion holdsrnthat in the developed world, birthratesrndropped from historic highs becausernconditions improved; therefore, the wayrnto lower birthrates in today’s lessdevelopedrncountries is by improvingrneconomic conditions through variousrn”development” schemes. Abernethyrnexplains why the experience of the Westrnis unique in the demographic history ofrnmankind. She gives many examplesrnof just the opposite effect occurring,rnwhere in hard times people had fewerrnchildren but then produced more whenrnconditions improved. (Conditions dornnot actually have to be better: a sensernof improvement accompanying somernmodernizing or developmental work, orrnthe renewed propaganda of the “unlimitedrnresources” school, is often sufheientrnto touch off a fertility boom.)rnIn a singular contribution to the debaternover the ethics of immigration policies,rnthe author contends that even thernprospect of emigration is pronatalist inrnits effect, focusing as it does attentionrnaway from local limits, the perceptionrnof which is antinatalist; she adds thatrnemigration as an option forestalls attemptsrnto deal with local problems andrnencourages would-be emigres to runrnaway from them. How will pressing difficultiesrnever be resolved if those whorncan envision a better life somewhere elsernsimply pack up and leave? As ProfessorrnAbernethy remarks, “Perceived opportunitiesrnto emigrate may be just as corrosivernas large-scale aid. Immigrationrnappeals to many of the most energeticrnpeople of a society—exactly those peoplernwho would be most likely to promoternconstructive reform at home.”rnSkeptics of foreign aid will find muchrnuseful material in the third part of PopulationrnPolitics, which details the failingsrnof many international developmentrnschemes. Abernethy takes the positionrnthat foreign aid should at least not harmrnthe countries it is intended to help—asrndid the drilling of water wells for cattlernin the Sahel, which began the processrnof desertification. Abernethy’s reviewrnof counterproductive foreign aid projectsrnbrings to mind William and ElizabethrnPaddock’s We Don’t Know Howrn(1973), which recounts the failure ofrnmany foreign aid efforts in Latin America.rnAbernethy does suggest small-scalerndevelopment projects of a type thatrndoes not overwhelm traditional controlsrnon fertility or encourage unrealistic expectations.rnShe makes a solid ease thatrnfertility control depends mostly on motivationrnrather than on mechanics, andrnthat motivation is tied to a strong sensernof limits. A review of traditional methodsrnof control, ranging from polygynyrnand subincision to delayed or foregonernmarriage, is one of the most valuablernfeatures of her volume.rnIn the book’s fourth and final section,rnAbernethy considers the demographicrnhistory of Europe and the United States,rnpointing out that low fertility characterizedrnthe Depression and that the babyrnboom was ignited by the remarkablernpost-World War II recovery—exactlyrnthe opposite of what demographic transitionrntheory would predict. From therernshe launches into a no-holds-barred attackrnon current American immigrationrnpolicy, stressing that slightly more thanrnhalf of the 50 million-increase in ourrnpopulation from 1970 to 1990 (withoutrnwhich we would now be well on our wayrnto stabilizing our numbers) is attributablernto immigrants and their offspring.rnShe addresses virtually every relevantrneconomic, environmental, social,rnand cultural argument for and againstrna continuation of that policy.rnLET US KNOWrnBEFORE YOU GO !rnTo assure uninterrupted delivery ofrnCHRONICLES please notify us inrnadvance. Send change of address on thisrnform with the mailing label from yourrnlatest issue of CHRONICLES to:rnSubscription DepartmentrnCHRONICLESrnP.O. Box 800rnMount Morris, Illinois 61054rnADDRESSrnJUNE 1993/35rnrnrn