CHRONICLES INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENTrnImmigration MisinformationrnTeeming Masses and Fnnny Numbersrnb’ Virginia Deane AbernethyrnThe debate over immigration policy has been marked b’ inaccuraternreporting in an astonishing number of instances.rnErrors and material omissions bv the U.S. Immigration andrnNaturalizahon Service (INS), the Census Bureau, and the Departmentrnof Education are only the beginning of misinformationrnabout immigration. News releases and publications by experts,rnincluding some associated with the federal government,rnadd to the confusion about the population explosion mostrnAmericans observe in their commrmities.rnThe mistakes are systematic. All direct the reader (listener,rnviewer) to believe that the U.S. population is not growing unusuallyrnfast compared to that of other industrialized countries,rnthat immigration is a negligible source of this growth, and thatrnimmigration is not contributing to many of the nation’s socialrnproblems.rnFor example, the Hl-B and refugee debates are being revisited.rnAs of March 2000, congressional subcommittees on immigrationrnhad voted out proposals ranging from an additionalrn45,000 Hl-B visas this year to as many as 195,000 additionalrnvisas over tlie next three years.rnIn 1998, months of congressional debate over increasing thernnumber of Hl-B visas to allow additional skilled immigrants tornenter the United States culminated in raising the number ofrnvisas from 65,000 to 115,000 for two years and then 107,500 inrnthe third year. Additional provisions of the so-called AmericanrnCompetitiveness Act of 1998 gave amnesty to 50,000 Haitiansrnwho were illegally in the United States and delayed for 30rnmonths the implementation of provisions of a 1996 law to expediterndeportation of illegal aliens.rnThe debate was marked by acrimony and conflicting statistics.rnInvited to testify before Congress, the presidents and chiefrnexecutive officers of numerous information technologv (IT)rncompanies explained that they needed to import computer softwarernspecialists in order to remain competitive. American uni-rnersities, they claimed, vere graduating insufficient numbers ofrnIT specialists. T.J. Rodgers, president and CEO of CpressrnSemiconductor Corporation, struck the prevalent note: ‘ [W]ernhave strong feelings about the value provided by immigrant engineersrn—and also about the faetuallv hollow, emotion-drivenrnclaims of those who insist the U.S. semiconductor industryrncould retain its current global leadership without an adequaternsupply of high-quality engineers, including immigrants.”rnRodgers added that “The need for skilled workers in the hightechrnsector is growing exponentially…. Foreign skilled workersrnVirginia Deane Abernethy is professor emeritus of psychiatry atrnthe Vanderbilt Universit}’ School of Medicine and the author ofrnPopulation Politics: Tlie Choices that Shape Our Futurern(Insight Books).rnbut, in fact, create addi- do not take jobs from Americansrntional jobs.”rnIndustry representatives and congressional allies. Sen.rnSpencer Abraham (R-MI) foremost among them, relied on severalrnsets of data to bolster personal testimou)’. For example, theyrnargued that, behveen 1994 and 1997, the Labor Departmentrnand the Commerce Deparhnent nearh tripled the number ofrnjob openings it “certified,” a declaration that no American wasrntrained and available to do these jobs. A survey by the InformationrnTechnolog}’ .Association of America found that “Half of allrnrespondents cited |a lack of high-skilled workers] as the biggestrnbarrier” to growth. Finally, the Hudson Institute concluded inrnWorkforce 2020 that the skilled-labor shortage could “shave 5/trnoff the growth rate of GDP.”rnOthers argued that the labor shortage is a mirage. EdwinrnRubenstein suggests, “The alleged shortage of highlv educatedrnworkers in the U.S. is a myth. In fact, we’re suffering from arnchronic surplus of Ph.D.’s.” In June 1998, Rep. Lamar Smiflirn(R-TX), chairman of the House of Representatives ImmigrationrnSubcommittee of the Judiciary, released a survey showing thatrn21 American high-tech companies had dismissed 121,800rnworkers since December 1997. As Norman Matloff, a professorrnof computer science, said in an interview with Investors’ BusinessrnDaily: “The problem is that most employers prefer less-expensiverntalent. Most software firms surveyed hire less than 5/vofrnthe software professionals that apply for jobs. Microsoft Corporationrnhires 2%. Brodebur Sofhvare Inc. hires just 1%.”rnThe General Accounting Office (GAO) is likewise skepticalrnof the purported labor shortage. Its assessment of the U.S. Departinentrnof Commerce studv is that it “has serious analyticalrnand methodological weaknesses that undermine the credibilit-rnof its conclusion that a shortage of IT workers exists.” The GA()rnfurther criticizes the Information Technology Association ofrnAmerica findings, saying that the association had relied “on twornemployer surveys with ‘unaeceptably low’ response rates of 14rnpercent and 56 percent.”rnHardly mentioned in this debate is the long-term effect of respondingrnto labor-market shortages by importing immigrant labor:rnnamely, to dampen wage increases that would otherwisernoccur, which is, of course, the subtext in industr’s lobbying forrnadditional immigrant workers. However, higher wages forrnskilled labor are not necessarily bad for the economy.rnDemand-induced market adjustments in the price of laborrnare the traditional capitalist mechanism for overcoming laborrnshortages. Higher wages signal those seeking employment, orrnconsidering an area of specialization, to select the sector wherernwages are rising. This raises the quality of American jobs whilernensuring that the shortage will be temporary. In addition, higher-rncost labor is an inducement for industrv’ to invest in capitalrnOrnornHHrnarnHHrn>rnAUGUST 2000/21rnrnrn