it: Be careflil when you ask to hear the stark voice of the poorrnand oppressed; you may well not like what they have to say.rnWhile the Lambeth affair made headlines and duly delightedrnSpong’s numerous enemies, little attention was paid to therntectonic changes which it symbolized for the world’s religiousrnmakeup in the new millennium. Westerners have long beenrnfascinated by the impact of postmodern and feminist thoughtrnon their religious structures and have asked if, in the face ofrnthese challenges, Christianity can survive in any recognizablernform. Despite these doubts, Christianity itself continues anrnamazing global boom, is situated to benefit from worldwide demographicrntrends, and promises to enjoy far greater influencernin the future than it does today. Moreover, the shape of thisrnemerging global religion is ver)’ much what Spong and his ilkrnwould characterize as “irrational Pentecostal hysteria,” and it isrnthe postmodern and liberal trends which seem as endangeredrnas the passenger pigeon. The world of the new centur)- showsrnevery sign of being a highly religious place, dominated by therngreat historic faiths: Christianih’, of course, but also Islam, Buddhism,rnand Hinduism.rnThough the success or failure of a spiritual movement cannotrnbe measured simply in terms of numbers, in this easernthe raw figures are startling. Toda’, six countries in the worldrnhave populations in excess of 200 million: In another century,rnthere will be perhaps 14, and onlv one of these, the UnitedrnStates, will represent what we presentlv term the advancedrnWestern world. China and India will continue to be the mostrnpopulous states by far, with maybe a billion-and-a-half citizensrnin each, but rapid expansion will also occur in Latin Americanrnnations like Mexico and Brazil; Southeast Asian societies likernIndonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines; and especially inrnAfrica. By present projections, there could at that point be 500rnmillion Nigerians.rnDemographers are familiar enough with these projections,rnthough virtually nobody has ever publicly explored their sweepingrnreligious implications. Let us begin with what is now, andrnwill continue to be, the largest religious structure on the planet,rnnamely, the Roman Catholic Church. If we make the large assumptionrnthat the religious composition of these societies in anotherrncentury will be roughly what it is today, then we alreadyrnknow that Euro-American Catholics will be a tiny minority in arnChurch overwhelmingly dominated by Latin Americans,rnAfricans, and Asians, by Filipinos and Mexicans, Vietnamesernand Congolese. It is all but certain that the 20th century is thernlast in which whites will dominate the Catholic Church. Thernsituation becomes still more marked when we look at thern”Western” societies themselves: By 2025, Hispanics and Asiansrncombined will make up a quarter of the U.S. population, and arnvastiy greater proportion of American Catholics. To oversimplify,rnit is obvious to anyone with simple arithmetical skills thatrnthe Catholic future is brown and black.rnNor is this geographical shift solely a Catholic reality. AcrossrnEurope, the disposal of deserted churches of all denominationsrnis a ubiquitous nightmare: Many become mosques. If presentrntrends continue, Anglicanism could be the first of the colonialrnreligions virtually to disappear in its imperial heartland, while itrngrows apace among the formerly colonized. As in the seventhrncentury, Britain could be a rich mission field for Africa’s muscularrnChristianity: Just when will the first dedicated missionariesrnbegin their voyages from Lusaka to London?rnOnly by appreciating this historic shift in Christian irumbersrncan we understand what is so often dismissed as the diehard obscurantismrnof the Catholic hierarchy, and particularly that ofrnPope John Paul II, who knows all too well that the liberal issuesrndear to American or Dutch Catholics are irrelevant or worse tornthe socially traditional societies of the global South. The ordinationrnof women to the priesthood may seem an essential pointrnof justice to Westerners, but it is anathema to much of thernemerging world. This is why Catholic leaders tend to yawnrnwhen Catholics in Boston or Munich threaten schism: It is thernso-called traditionalists, not the liberals, who are already playingrnthe game of the new century. Adapting to become “relevant” orrnsensiti e to the needs of Western elites would be suicidal for thernlong-term prospects of the Church.rnThe “traditionalists” also know that no church or religion hasrna guaranteed market share, and the fact that Catholics todayrnpredominate in (say) the Philippines says nothing about thernstate of things in 50 or 100 years. Across the regions which willrnbe the most populated in the new centur)’, vast religious conflictsrnand contests are already in progress, though these impingernhardly at all on Western opinion-makers. In Latin America, thernbattle is between Catholics and Pentecostals, while Christiansrnof several shades vie with Muslims for African souls: Those 500rnmillion Nigerians are potential prizes for any of the great faiths,rnthough currently Islam stands by far in the strongest position.rnEven in India, a land soon to surpass China in population, arnstaggering one-fifth of the population are Dalits, the so-calledrnUntouchables, who represent a vev)’ fertile field for organizedrnevangelism by any major faith with the will to reach them: Willrnthat be Islam or Christianit)’?rnThough it is likely that Christians will continue to outnumberrnMuslims for the foreseeable future, Muslims across thernplanet stand to benefit from exactly the same demographicrntrends which are producing the unimaginably rich harvest forrnChristians. Most notably, Muslims will thrive from the explosiverngrowth of nations like Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Iran. Uncertainrnbut intriguing are the prospects in vast but semi-closedrncountries like China, where, according to some estimates, therernare already 40 or 50 million Christians, considerably more thanrnin France or Great Britain, as well as tens of millions of Muslims.rnIf religious restrictions were ever lifted in China, whatrnwould be the outcome of the contest? In numerical terms, Chinarncould easily become the world’s largest Christian nation, thernmost populous Muslim nation, or both of these at once.rnIn short, the world is entering a state of intense religious competitionrnwhich will determine the ideological and political maprnfor centuries to come, a period of flux unparalleled since thernmedieval struggles which determined tiiat European Christianityrnwould survive the Turkish onslaught. And everywhere, thernreligions which are triumphing are unflinchingly traditional orrneven reactionary, preaching deep personal faith and communalrnorthodoxy, visionary charisma and clear scriptural authority’,rnmysticism and puritanism. In this thought-world, prophecy andrnapocalypse are obvious even’day realities, while faith-healingrnand dream-visions are both integral to religious sensibility.rnMuslim, Catholic, or Pentecostal, these faiths are wholly uninterestedrnin Western obsessions about gender and sexual orientation,rnor even liberation theology: The only liberation whichrnmatters is salvation. Still less do they mourn the death of God.rnIndeed, in the sense in which Dietrich Bonhoeffer used this notoriousrnphrase, God is not only burninglv alive across the planet,rnHe promises to be ever more obviousty’ and immediately so.rnBut if this vision seems attractive or een intoxicating, we dorn18/CHRONICLESrnrnrn