castrated or whole. The language is gushynand overdone or just bland journalese.nRice’s unrestrained reliance upon hyperbolenhas the effect, ultimately, ofncausing the reader simply to withdrawnhis belief. The novel fairly floats on sensationalism,nbut sensationalism liinctioningnas a distracting ploy. It doesn’t work.nThe Prognosticator’s ShvifflenJohn Naishitt: Megatrends: Ten NewnDirections Transforming Our Lives;nWarner Books; New York.nby Herbert I. LondonnJjlegatrends may be the currentntrendy book, not because its views arenso startling or revelatory, but because itsntone and outlook are so different fromnbooks that are generally publishednabout the future. What John Naisbitt hasnwritten—^perhaps unwittingly—^is annantidote to the neo-Malthusians whonhave been claiming for more than a decadenthat apocalypse is around the comernwaiting to embrace us with “fate of thenearth” doom. Naisbitt doesn’t mentionnthe Club of Rome’s Limits To Growthnnor does he cite the Carter Administration’snGlobal 2000 Report: He doesn’tnrecite the litany of gloom the Paul Ehrlichsnand Garrett Hardins promote. Insteadnhe offers a description of this nationnand the rest of the world in dynamicntransition. This is a time between times,na great transition in which we presumablynconvert our economic engines fromnindustrialization and services to information.nAs Naisbitt puts it: “Although thentime between eras is uncertain, it is a greatnand yeasty time, filled with opportunity.”nThis is not a sophisticated book. It isnfilled with dubious suppositions, e.g.,n”societies are like human beings,” and “anpersonal value system compensates fornthe impersonal nature of technology.”nMr. London is dean, Gallatin Division,nNew York University.nSOMMHI^^^HnChronicles of CttlturenAll the king’s horses and all the king’snmen couldn’t put Humpty Dumpty backntogether again, and all the chic pornographynand all the gratuitous violence,nunderwriting a realism which is totallynersatz, cannot make Cty to Heaven othernthan what it is^-a prolonged exercise innsyrupy sentimentality. DnIts methodology, which is based on thencontent analysis of newspapers, has thenpretense of objectivity without the criticalnawareness of what newspapers arenobliged to include and what is “newsworthy”nin this era. Moreover, what Mr.nNaisbitt describes as characteristics of antrend—such things as “the granola ethic”nand human-potential groups—are in allnprobability as culturally durable as hulahoopsnand love potions. Mr. Naisbittndoes portray a dynamic society shiftingnits economic emphasis in an electronicnrevolution. Although Naisbitt doesn’tnspecifically mention resources, it is apparentnthat the building blocks of a futureneconomy are not based on mineralsnin the ground, but on knowledge, technology,ncapital, and ingenuity. If there isnhigh unemployment in Michigan it isndue as much to the transition from an industrialnto an informational society as itnis to the much-ballyhooed recession ofnthe Reagan Administration. As Naisbittnpoints out, our economy feces structuralnunemployment in moribund sectors thatncannot effectively cope with foreign competition—^thensteel industry, for example.nnnImplicitiy, Naisbitt argues that we copenwith immediate economic problems byndiversifying, moving, and recognizing thenwell-developed trends. Clearly this is happening.nHowever, what he doesn’t recognizenis the plight of those left behind—^then50-year-old automobile welder whonearned $ 15 an hour and is now fortunatenif he can secure a $6-an-hour night watchman’snjob. There are many who will notnadjust to the new computer age for variousnreasons, such as their previous employment,ntheir inability to adapt to newneconomic conditions, or their lack of education.nAlthou^ it will be no consolationnto the unemployed, the same conditionnexisted when we converted from annostensibly agricultural to an industrialneconomy.nIt is interesting—^as Naisbitt suggests—nthat the so-caUed Third World is a beneficiarynof this transition. As we becomenmore reUant on high technology, lessdevelopednnations can fill the gap left bynour departure from industrialization.nThe effects of the global redistributionnof production can be observed today.nBrazil has become a major shipbuildingnnation; South Korea is comiog to dominatensteel markets; textiles are producednin India, Malaysia, and Taiwan; and, asnthe Japanese readily admit, automobilenmanufacturing will probably reside exclusivelynin the less-developed worldnbefore the end of this century. It is somewhatnsophomoric, but the metaphor ofnthe frog pond with tadpoles, toads, andnfrogs each going through a stage in itsnevolution is an appropriate model fornour present world economic transition.nJNaisbitt describes 10 trends that arentransforming our lives. These are: 1. thentransition from an industrial to an informationalnsociety; 2. the need for personalnresponses to balance impersonal highntechnology; 3- the evolution from nationalneconomies to a world economy;n4. the replacement of short-term fornlong-term planning and decision-making;n5. the grovrth of decentralized over centralizedninstitutions; 6. a move away fromninstimtional to individual help; 7. a de-n